Now you would have thought that I’d be pooping in my pants at that one YET I’m not. I tend to trust the math involved when one goes off. After all there isn’t a lot I can do about it anyway as the UK is tiny so there aren’t a lot of places to go and hide at a moments notice.
Red Diamond is us at 8 miles
Green is 3rd degree burn range (Air Burst)
Orange us 3rd degree burn range (Ground Burst)
As always with crowd pleaser’s the two types of detonation are:-
Air Burst (Bigger damage area but less fallout)
Ground Burst (Less widespread damage, fallout higher)
The sort of good news is the prevailing wind round us is usually from the South West. Still it’s the rings that tell the story and the story is what happens during and after the ‘POP’.
FLASH (Burn, and a free whole body X-ray),
The rings are the limit of the 3rd degree burns.
The ground burst Dark orange, the Air Burst Dark green.
BLAST (out and the return),
And finally FALLOUT.
Provided the fireball doesn’t touch the deck, the fall out from an air burst is minimal.
So what does that mean for us?
Firstly this from an US site regarding a 1 MT ground burst.
I should add here that most MERVS are supposedly 500 KT devices and this was listed at the 8 mile point.
Residences are moderately damaged.
Commercial buildings have sustained minimal damage.
25% of the population between the 2 and 1 psi rings have been injured, mainly by flying glass and debris.
Many others have been injured from thermal radiation — the heat generated by the blast.
The remaining seventy-five percent are unhurt.
That’s sort of simple in my mind.
Provided we get undercover before the flash, and survive the blast, we’re going to be sort of OK, unlike the poor saps to the North East of us if it turns out to be a ground burst.
Radiation wise (the 14 day story) science shows us being hit with only an initial 1 rad a day. According to the experts, it takes 25 rads a day to change your blood work.
We have another factor in our favor, we are REALLY LOW DOWN.
I’m talking river level plus a foot. Also we have a lot of heavy-duty stuff and terrain between us and them. That’s kinda comforting to know.
Am I being a bit optimistic here?
Probably but only the good die young and I’ve been a VERY VERY bad boy.