Do you need a long term plan?

There is something a bit fanciful about planning what you are going to be doing in a grid down scenario that lasts for a long time.

It reminds me of what a friend once said:-
Why do you worry about something that can kill you in the future when there is so much that can kill you today. He had a point.

Just thinking along the Survival Rule Of Threes sort of questions your survival longevity.

  • 3 Seconds without adequate cover or defence from attack
  • 3 Minutes without good air, a heartbeat, or massive blood loss.
  • 3 Hours without shelter and adequate climate control.
  • 3 Days without clean water, personal medications, and SLEEP.
  • 3 Weeks (continuous weeks) without food.

Especially if you factor in the effects of a CBRN event.
Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear event.

  • Chemical?
    Some nerve gases will see you dead in under a minute
  • Biologicals?
    Zombie type? Seconds maybe if you believe Hollywood.
    The usual nasties, 7 to 10 days before you become symptomatic.
  • Radiological aka dirty bomb or industrial accident
    Probably years
  • Nuclear?
    Hopefully if you’re going to go it’ll be too fast to register but typically radiation sickness takes a few weeks for a serious exposure.
    As for the genetic nasties to show their faces? Years maybe?

You know I’ve often wondered the logic of the 72 hour bag too.
I’ve asked and re-asked why 3 days?
Ex-spurts the whole world over are always guessing the answer or citing a reference (that also guesses the answer).

Except everyone I asked didn’t think to ask one pertinent question.
Under what circumstances was it being used?
Probably because the (FM) Field manual doesn’t ask that either.

However the two common responses to the question were:-

  • 3 days worth of supplies will last you until the authorities either resupply or save you.

rotglmanSeriously!

  • Or that it’s damn hard to carry more that 3 days worth of water (3 US gallons, 25 lbs), food, and gear. That is for everyone except Captain America or Macho man.overload

When you consider the usual SOP of disasters i.e.
Warning signs (if any),
The Event itself,
The immediate aftermath,
The recovery after that.

Unless you can cherry pick the scenario to suit your capabilities, equipment, training, or if today is lucky for you. How do you know what you’ve got, or if the training you had is good enough to survive whatever, and what the long-term effect of the event will do to you anyway?

So why bother planning (or laying in supplies) for the long-term?
Do I?
Not really.
My Banner line  reads:-
You wanna know the funny thing about the end of the world?
The world is still afterwards.
Thus I prepare for today and will sort out tomorrow when it arrives.

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22 Responses to Do you need a long term plan?

  1. yokel. says:

    TPTB definition of long term is anything that lasts longer than 30 days.
    my definition is YEARS/DECADES.

    • Long term for me?
      Probably tomorrow after I survive whatever happens today.
      SWMBO says it’s no good us long term planning for anything anyway.
      Something or someone always cocks up our plans.
      She’s got a point and it’s backed up by bitter experience.

      No, long term for us is defined by the rule of threes.
      Anything better than those rules is gravy on the biscuit!

  2. Thoughtfully Prepping, Thank You,to You and all of the people in the prepper community who give of their knowledge and experience so freely. Some folks like me, have to put extra effort into our preps just to find the time or a little extra cash to prepare with, and all of the information that we get from good folks like You seem to make things a little easier.

  3. yokel. says:

    Long Term will be down to the “Tribal” level, “communities” will be made up of small, isolated villages, cities wont be viable and will be left for mother nature to retake.
    if you haven’t got a long term plan that involves some form of agriculture and self sufficiency, then don’t bother with prepping sites cos you wont survive in the long run, and attempting to do so will only delay the inevitable.
    “foraging” only goes so far, and hunting and trapping can be a hit and miss affair.

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